Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Organic Food - Long term trend

What we call Organic Food was called Food by your grandparents. It is a trend that will continue to show up now, in my opinion.

A couple of exemplary companies at the moment on my radar that I may miss being on the sidelines due to the Infosys nature of stock (high growth but equally high PE multiple).

First is in the United States. Where Food Comes From Inc. It provides Organic Certification, Labelling, Third Party Verification

WFCF is still a small cap at 65 Million USD market cap. The company will be engaged in McDonalds tracking and verification program and has lions share of market.

On the face of it quite dear, 6 times revenues and 100 times earnings.

Second is an Australian company, just noticed today, makes organic baby food (Just as no patient bets low on brain surgeon, no parent bets low on infant food).

The company is wiping out its competition with revenue growth of 150% in the previous year and net profit growth of 450%. The company came with an IPO last year and is 7 times up since. A rare IPO stock that was not overpriced. Needs more research. Bellamy is nearing 800 million MCAP, 5 times revenues and 85 times earnings. If the growth continues at even 1/3rd of the current years' pace (always hard to look ahead), then the stock looks quite cheap. Company has positioned itself for growth in Hong Kong and China.

What is evidently clear is the potential of the sector.

Click to Enlarge

Friday, September 4, 2015

Tart Chart

In a bear market, stocks may seem like mouthful of hot molasses, too sticky to spit out, too hot to swallow.

While claims of creating material wealth are true in equity markets, emotional impact on full time dedicated investors is not well studied and reported. It pays to be a bull as markets are mostly up rather than down over long term.

To be informed is to be empowered.

You should know, if you are not already aware that equity indices may or may not move for 11 years (eg: Sensex) or 16 years( eg: Dow Jones) or even 25 years (eg: Nikkei) except for 1% of stocks (that we may or may not own). Person who has not read history is like a child, doomed to repeat mistakes (of throwing in the towel, or himself from the window :-))

Some of the charts below will provide perspective on bear markets.

I just tweeted that a typical, low intensity bear market (3 on Richter scale) typically lasts 6-18 months. Not sure which part was horrendous for my friend Padmashankar, comparison with Hitler's gas chamber or duration of bear markets. I assumed duration, if 18 months is long and painful, then one is likely to end up in lunatic asylum if one is trapped in a 10 year bear market, hence this post.

Lets pay homage to the mother of all, Dow Jones in 1930s, several years long, down 86% from 375 to 50, the great bear market (read suicides)

Note the 18 Year consolidation (read pain) from 1906 - 1924 and 16 Year consolidation (read suffering) from 1966 - 1982

25 Year Bear market since 1989 and counting in Japan......

Closer to home, Sensex experienced negative returns over the 11 year period 1992-2003

Poem I wrote for Bear Market

I am a simple bumpkin with no minions
but dream big of billions not just millions

I carry a dream in my heart 
while working on a stock market chart

To quit my day job
no responsibility to mob

but this bear market
is upsetting my bread-basket

Many say, the market is no art
a monkey can throw dart

But those who wither the storm
shall rise to be re-born

We live in the noons of tomorrow
not stirred with bear market sorrow

Its just the beginning the journey to billion
Of my greedy addiction and accumulation

This stock market chart shall not thwart
my formidable army will tear the fort of bear apart

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

NSE Kenya - 50 bagger

Having seen a large number of research reports, focusing on next 20-25% only, but on equities that went up several fold, are in stark contrast to how a long term investor should think and a great dis-service to long term investors.

I read a statement recently, "Best investing articles are the ones that have nothing to do with investment". I see this all the time, with investing newsletters venturing into  philosophy.

The problem I find with this statement is that the person in context has defined himself / herself narrowly as an investor. I have not. As a man shall not live by bread alone but by every word of ....., no investor shall live with stocks or financial analysis alone. It is too drab to focus on single domain without variety. 

So, I do not like philosophizing on equities but come to the point. The point being making money with multi-fold growing ideas. Hence the title of this post.

While I may be wrong in duration it may take for NSE Kenya to be 50 times, perhaps it could be a mere 20 bagger over next 12 years. Every serious long term investor should go through annual reports of NSE Kenya and find out if he/she holds the company that is better than this? I unequivocally found the answer to be No, in every situation, not excluding BRK. That also depends if you consider 18-20% to be sufficient year in and year out.

Someone needing USD there is some semblance of currency depreciation to keep them away from Kenya or Nigeria, but for INR earners, that does not seem to be the case.

In the previous three years, the company grew top line by 25-35%. 2015 was a hard year for Kenya with tourist cancellations, scaremongering by CNN on security, horticultural crop failure, so, in the six months ended 30th of June 2015, the company grew topline by just 15% and bottomline by 40% (that is a bad year). A great company constantly throws up two choices "Very good and excellent, and a bad company constantly offers you other two choices gruesome and horrible", speaketh Buffett. This result sets the company at valuation of ~10.5 times earnings (as opposed to 12 that I said in previous post today Again, for my the benefit of my institutional brethren, its TTM not FY18 earnings.

Link to half yearly results: 30-June-2015

NSE Kenya is a lot similar to CRISIL, but only better in every respect, in terms of cash flows and market share. Dividend payout needs improvement. A lot of investors from India are familiar with CRISIL one of the biggest credit rating agencies of India, and if you see its 10 year chart, it has gone up 200 times. Crisil is growing at humble 15% but PE ratio is 65.

CRISIL price went up 200 times for those who dared to invest with fog on the windscreen. Very High quality companies will not be available at 10 times earnings, nay even 30 times earnings. That has been the case in my experience with India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; I would wager that will be case with Kenya and Nigeria as well.

I will be least surprised if the dividend per share after 10-15 years on NSE Kenya is far bigger than 2015 current market price of the script. If you find one such company, and you do not pounce on it, you are making a big mistake.

Lastly, NSE Kenya has no reason to be listed, merely a Capital Market Authority mandate to share wealth. That is exactly what you need to be looking, companies that are listed due to a freak accident and are not in need of capital.

Its time for you to get rich, think 10 years forward!

Monday, August 24, 2015

Why India is still expensive Sensex @ 25,000 ( just 20% down from peak )

Munger uses opportunity cost as a very frequently used tool.

Munger opines that if you have the opportunity to purchase an investment that is better than 98% of all businesses, then you can use it as a filter to automatically eliminate the other 98%.

Ultimately in the long run, investing world is full of toads that do not transform to princes.

I wrote in 2013 about Unilever Nepal @ 10,000 NPR / share. The company is growing @ 20%, not less than it grows in any other emerging country.

Now, after two years of irrational bull market (not backed by productivity improvement) companies are over priced on every continent.

Unilever Nepal (where FII investment is not allowed) is also trading at reasonable valuations (22 PE from 12 PE two years back) on back of 20% growth, it looks quite affordable. 

The company has lions share of FMCG market in the country, pays out 100% of dividends, in fact, Royalty is also paid as dividends, hence a minority investor wins more. This years' dividend is whopping 990 Rs a share giving a 4% yield on closing market price of 26,000 Rs yesterday.

Year Revenues Net Profits Crores * # of Shares** Earning Per Share *   * In Nepal Rs
2002 6.75 920,700 73  ** Face Value 100 Nepal Rs (Hindustan Unilever owns 80%)
2003 Growth 25% 4.25 920,700 46.28 40 Rs Dividend
2004 9.31 920,700 101.38
2005 12.7 920,700 138.3
2006 18.91 920,700 205
2007 23.81 920,700 259 220+ Rs Dividend
2008 145 26.3 920,700 286 250+ Rs Dividend
2009 214 33.5 920,700 364 300+ Rs Dividend
2010 290 51 920,700 555 350+ Rs Dividend
2011 337 61 920,700 664 400+ Rs Dividend
2012 420 70.26 920,700 763 680 Rs Dividend
2013 472.47 83.13 920,700 903 760 Rs Dividend
2014 920,700 1000 860 Rs
2015 920,700 1200 990 Rs Dividend

Not bad, the price has gone up 150% in two years + dividend yield is 4%, and company continues to look cheap..


While I appreciate you may not be able to buy Unilever Nepal, but any citizen of any country can still buy NSE Kenya (on they way to become my biggest single holding anywhere) which has 100% control over equity (futures, commodity, derivatives soon) markets in Kenya.

The company is expected to grow over 25%. INR / KES equation does not look that bad. You will be astounded to note the PE ratio, 12 times earnings. This is not an asinine FY25 scenario, its TTM earnings. I wrote about this opportunity here . Serious enough people would act rather than analyse

Having found near monopolies at 12 and 20 times earnings with same country demographic and growth characteristics as India, these companies will be drowning in cash, wouldn't you call that opportunity cost. These companies are proverbially as strong as the a Portfolio of Three Companies Munger keeps talking about. 

You have 15% growers like Blue Dart trading @ 80 times earnings, 3M at 100 times earnings, a 15% growing Asian Paints at 65 times earnings, and a troubled Zero growth Commodity Stock Exchange MCX (just because its monopoly) at 45 times earnings. If India is not expensive, then which countries' equities are expensive? I see, you are asking me to buy 3rd tier companies. I wrote to a number of people whom I advise to expect Zero returns in India in next two years. IMO India is still very expensive.